Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
