Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.