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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.